Phison CEO Warns NAND Shortage Could Drag On Until 2030, Locking In Pricier SSDs

Gamers hoping for cheaper SSDs any time soon may be out of luck. Phison founder and CEO Pua Khein-Seng, known internationally as K.S. Pua, has reportedly warned that the supply-demand imbalance for DRAM and NAND flash memory could persist until 2030 or even longer, as AI infrastructure buildouts continue to swallow the world’s chip supply. The comments, made in an interview and reported by Videocardz, point to years more of expensive, hard-to-find storage for PC builders and console owners alike.

Pua Says Foundries Are Bracing for a Decade of Shortages

Pua explained the supply-demand imbalance for DRAM and NAND Flash could persist until 2030, in comments made during an interview and reported by Videocardz. The situation is being driven by an unprecedented shift in bargaining power away from buyers. Memory suppliers are reportedly demanding “three years” of prepayment for supply, framing the current situation as a seller-driven market.

Other outlets that reviewed the same interview material paint an even starker picture of the long-term outlook. One of the major revelations was that foundries anticipate shortages through 2030, with sellers demanding a three-year prepaid payment for capacity, according to WCCFTech’s reporting. Some manufacturers reportedly internally estimate the shortage will last until 2030, or even another 10 years, per Overclock3D’s translation.

Consumer Brands Could Vanish Before Enterprise Demand Even Peaks

The immediate fallout, according to Pua, will hit smaller consumer electronics makers hardest. Many consumer electronics manufacturers could go bankrupt or exit product lines by the end of 2026 due to the AI-driven memory shortage. He predicted a “massive die-off” among system companies, with many shutting down or exiting product lines from year-end through 2026 because they cannot secure memory.

The scale of the disruption to consumer hardware production is significant. Pua forecast smartphone production falling by 200 to 250 million units, alongside significant cuts in PC and TV output. He stressed that enterprise buyers are only just starting to flex their purchasing weight, with that demand barely factored in yet. That suggests shortages may intensify further as AI-driven workloads increase.

Nvidia’s Vera Rubin Alone Could Eat 20% of Global NAND Output

Pua pointed to Nvidia’s next-generation Vera Rubin AI platform as a concrete example of how much flash storage a single product line can absorb. “If NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin ships tens of millions of units, each requiring over 20TB of SSD, it will consume approximately 20% of last year’s global NAND production capacity,” was how the interview was summarised, according to PC Gamer’s translation of the comments. That figure notably excludes any additional storage the same AI systems will need to hold the data they generate.

The pricing impact of this squeeze is already visible in wholesale markets. As Phison first flagged in its third-quarter 2025 earnings call, reported by DigiTimes, the global boom in artificial intelligence has triggered a severe shortage of essential storage chips, doubling prices in just six months, with the supply-and-demand imbalance for NAND flash memory likely to persist for several years as chipmakers remain cautious about building new factories. Pua noted that prices for TLC 1-terabit NAND, a common storage component, skyrocketed from US$4.80 in July 2025 to US$10.70 in November 2025.

Component Costs Are Already Reshaping Bill of Materials

Cheaper, lower-density chips have not been spared either. As an example of price pressure, 8GB eMMC rose from about $1.50 in early 2025 to about $20, with automotive-grade pricing approaching $30, while availability remains tight. Pua argued the pain will not be spread evenly across the industry. He said memory can account for over 20% of a smartphone’s bill of materials, versus about 5% to 6% for servers, which makes it easier for data-centre customers to pay up and secure allocation.

Phison itself is chasing the higher-margin end of the market rather than retail. Its own financial disclosures show enterprise SSD sales are expected to grow to 20, 30% of total revenue by 2026, a deliberate pivot away from budget consumer drives. That squeezes the very segment gamers and PC builders shop in.

What This Means for Gamers Building PCs in NZ and Australia

For Kiwi and Australian gamers, the practical fallout is a storage market that behaves nothing like the one many built their current rigs in. Budget NVMe drives that used to anchor cheap gaming PC builds are being squeezed out first, as suppliers redirect NAND toward hyperscale data centres and premium enterprise SSDs rather than the low-margin retail tier that stocks local PC stores.

With console makers, laptop OEMs and handheld manufacturers all drawing from the same shrinking NAND pool, the warning adds pressure to an already tight regional hardware market, where import costs and freight already push AUD and NZD storage prices above US list prices. Anyone planning to expand a PS5, Xbox or gaming PC’s storage in the near term may want to treat current prices as the new normal rather than waiting for a return to the cheap SSD deals of 2023 and 2024.